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The waiter set down a glass of vodka in front of Bohdanovich and a glass of Coke in front of Cole. Cole slid his Coke over in front of Bohdanovich. "Don't give them a head start," he said.
Bohdanovich smiled. "One vodka doesn't make me drunk, it makes me Ukrainian."
"So the best strategy," said Cole, "is to persuade them to back off."
"Which is why we must have nuclear weapons." Which was Bohdanovich's mission, of course, to try to find a way to get Cole to get President Torrent to allow some American nukes into Ukraine so that the Russians would be deterred.
"Not a prayer," said Cole, "and you know why." Nukes would be a provocation and would absolutely guarantee an invasion—and in the end, the American nukes would end up in Russian hands. Not an acceptable risk.
"Then how would you keep Russia from walking all over us?"
Cole smiled. "It's all about appearances," he said. "The Russians don't want to appear to be imperialists. It's like Hitler pretending to be looking out for Germans living in Austria and Czechoslovakia and Poland. The Russians are pretending that it's all about Russian nationals living in the Baltic states. If they send troops in—or cut off the oil—it will be to protect the interests of Russians who are an oppressed minority."
"Exactly," said Bohdanovich. "But if we try to expel them—"
"No, no," said Cole. "You do the opposite. Well, not you. Make it Estonia, where the national language is nothing like Russian. The Estonian government declares that they understand the plight of the 'visitors,' the Russian nationals, and they are going to make sure that they don't suffer any disadvantage. In fact, the 'visitors' are going to have the very best that Estonia has to offer."
Bohdanovich belched softly. "They already do."
"No, no, you're missing the point. They need to make it extravagant. Exaggerated. From now on, any Russian national who wants to get into the best schools and universities will be admitted, no questions asked. They declare that they are Russian nationals, and they go straight to the head of the line. Native Estonians will go to the lesser schools. Therefore the lesser schools will all be taught in Estonian?'
"So it's segregated," said Bohdanovich.
"But the Russian nationals get the best. And in order to get that 'best' they have to declare themselves to be Russian nationals … and not Estonians. They're still citizens, but they have a strong incentive to make a decision, a clear dividing line. Russian nationals on this side, as 'visitors,' and real Estonians on the other side. And it's not just schools. Everywhere—movie theaters, butcher shops, the post office—Russian nationals can always go straight to the head of the line. Just show their papers or even speak Russian and zip—they get waited on ahead of everyone else."
Bohdanovich shook his head vehemently. "So the Estonians do it to themselves instead of waiting for the Russians to come in and take over? They'll never."
"The point is, Russia will have no pretext. Russian nationals in Estonia are getting the best of everything. Instead of a persecuted minority, they're being treated like lords, like conquerors. How could Russia justify cutting off the oil or attacking? It would be naked imperialism instead of looking out for Russians. In fact, Russian citizens will be envious of the advantages Russians are getting in Estonia—they're sure not getting any of that at home!"
"So the Estonian people become second-class citizens in their own country?"
"No," said Cole. "That's the beauty of it. They become the only real citizens. Any Estonian of Russian descent who claims 'visitor' status is confessing that he's not a real Estonian. It's social death. They know they don't deserve this special treatment. They know it's resented. They know they're only getting it because of the big Russian army across the border. So if they march to the head of the line or put their kids in the Russian-language schools and universities, they're saying to everybody, I'm not Estonian."
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"You think they won't? They'll be happy to! You don't know how arrogant Russians are."
"Some Russians," said Cole. "Some Russians will accept all the perks. But others won't. They'll see what's happening. That this is a division, a way to mark who is really Estonian and who is really just a Russian visitor. They don't want to go back to Russia—are you kidding? Who would want to, when they're prospering so well in Estonia? I give you ten years and there won't be more than a few thousand 'visitors' left in Estonia. Everybody else will have declared themselves to be Estonians, not Russians, and now what does Russia do? The Baltic states aren't one-quarter Russian anymore, there are almost no Russians there at all."
"It will never work. Baltic Russians think they deserve special treatment. They'll just take advantage of it."
"It's worth a try," said Cole.
"The Baltic nations have too much pride. We have too much pride."
"Too much pride to survive? Look, it's all about keeping the Russian army behind their own borders and keeping the oil flowing until the Russian economy destroys itself. Already the Russian army is underequipped and undertrained and underpaid. Already corruption is sucking the life out of the Russian economy. Already the population of Russia is falling. And if you deprive the fearless leader of his big bold conquests, things only get worse inside Russia."
"So after a while the Russian threat goes away, and then—"
"And the worse it gets in Russia, the less the Baltic Russians want to be Russian and the more they want to be Estonians and Latvians and Lithuanians."
"So maybe it works," said Bohdanovich. "How does that help Ukraine?"
"In the short run, you can't stop the Russian army from crossing the border. In the long run, the Russian economy and the Russian army can't keep it going against a determined resistance. You will win, if they invade. You think the Russian generals don't know that? So they don't want to invade Ukraine. They only want to invade one of the Baltic states, because it would be over immediately and then everybody else falls in line. If the Baltic states make it politically impossible for the fearless leader to invade them, what does he do? He's dictator of a failing country, he's getting less and less popular, he has to invade somebody because he can't actually fix any of the problems."
"So he invades us, thank you very much!"
"No," said Cole. "He orders his generals to invade Ukraine, and they know it's a losing proposition, so they arrest him and take over the government and use the military to root out the corruption and try to fix the economy."
