Page 119 of See You Next Tuesday

Air date: March 5

Cat: Hi, this is Cat.

Ruby: And this is Ruby.

Cat: Welcome back to Work the Polls, where we take a weekly look at what’s happening with women in politics.

Ruby: And what’s happening remains…bad.

Cat: So bad.

Ruby: Hideously bad.

Cat: Ruby, you’ve worked in politics professionally—can you help me understand what happened? Jo Sessego came in second by a razor-thin margin in Iowa, scored a decisive victory in New Hampshire, and absolutely crushed in her home state of Nevada. But then it felt like everything fell apart? She lost by thirty points in South Carolina, and now we’re just days out from Super Tuesday, with sixteen states about to vote, and everyone’s acting like Wheeler has the whole contest sewn up. How did we get to this point?

Ruby: Huge sigh…okay. So, I think we have to talk about a few things. The first is that progressive voters really over-index in Iowa and New Hampshire, which means progressive candidates tend to fare better there than in other states. So Jo Sessego had that going for her, and then she had her home state on top of that, like you mentioned. So one thing that could be happening is we saw a little bit of a Sessego mirage in those first three states, and we’re starting to see more centrist voters take the reins.

Cat: That makes sense for South Carolina, but not for all the Super Tuesday states. Massachusetts votes on Super Tuesday! So does Vermont, and California!

Ruby: And if Jo Sessego can pull off wins in those states, especially California, she’ll still be in this race. But that’s looking tough right now for two big reasons.

Cat: Which are?

Ruby: First, Liddy and Nathan dropped out of the race earlier than expected. They’re both moderates—if they had stayed in through Super Tuesday, they would have cut into Wheeler’s votes and made it easier for Sessego to get a plurality. Since they dropped out, most of their voters are going to Wheeler.

Cat: You can’t count on men to do anything right.

Ruby: One hundred percent correct.

Cat: What’s the second reason?

Ruby: This one is trickier—but there’s definitely been a message shift, and a shift in media coverage of the race. The media loves an underdog, so Sessego was enjoying some shine from that on her spectacular rise from when she entered the race through those first three primaries. But the media also really loves to knock a woman off a pedestal. Jo Sessego was never going to win South Carolina—but she lost by more than expected because of Nathan and Liddy dropping out of the race. So now the media is asking, “Was she ever really the favorite? Was this just a blip? Will the country really vote for a candidate like Jo?” And Wheeler is asking those same questions with these really upsetting attack ads—which, to her credit, Sessego hit back on very hard.

Cat: But not hard enough?

Ruby: Maybe too hard, actually. Because when Sessego hit back on those ads, she ended up giving them free attention. She gave the talking heads on cable news an excuse to talk about the ads more: They were mudslinging attack ads, sure, but did they raise some valid questions? And combined with her loss in South Carolina, that really started to cement this narrative that Jo Sessego cannot and should not win the Democratic nomination. Democrats are afraid to lose in November, and Wheeler feels like the safer choice. The safe, white, male, moderate choice.

Cat: So, is it over? Is that it? It felt so real this time—like, after all the losses we’ve had to watch women endure, for once it was actually going to work out.

Ruby: I hope it’s not over. The Sessego campaign is running an incredible field organization—they’re absolutely gangbusters on voter turnout. So there’s a chance they could still pull out some big victories on Super Tuesday, and if they do, I think they’re still in this.

Cat: But if they don’t?

Ruby: Then we might have to accept that we lost this time. But we’ll keep fighting. In the next election, and the one after that. I mean, right? What else can we do?

Signal group chat transcript: Anya Katz, Kira Liu, and Simone Humphrey

March 9, 11:14 p.m.

Simone: This is…not a super Tuesday

Anya: Are we going to win a single state?

Simone: Maybe Minnesota, they’re still counting

Simone: But I think Wheeler will take the rest

Kira: Anya, are you with JS now?